Predictions on the impact of the global new crown epidemic

This year, global mining and construction equipment production will fall by 7.8%. The outlook for 2020 presents two very different chapters. Due to the impact of the early measures of the new crown epidemic, the weak performance was mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, but the overall outlook for the third quarter and the second half of the year has rebounded. The annual decline is mainly caused by developed countries, and almost all major economies will experience double-digit declines in output. The economic recession in the Eurozone and the United Kingdom has led to a decline in confidence in the construction industry and a sharp drop in investment. During the same period, Japan’s economic recovery will be slightly postponed until the beginning of next year due to the determination of a new date for the Olympic Games.

From a more optimistic perspective, although the global labor force, production and supply chains are disrupted by the epidemic, emerging markets will usher in a year of positive growth. This is largely due to China, whose economic decline in the second quarter was slightly better than that of other economies such as Brazil and India, which are still struggling to contain the spread of the new crown virus.

However, it is worth noting that mining and construction equipment have made the overall growth rate decline even more serious. If only the construction industry is concerned, the decline is not so low. Unlike other industries in the manufacturing and extractive industries, the construction industry is expected to perform better than other industries, and it is expected that there will be a rapid "V" rebound in 2021.

In view of the rapid changes in the economic environment caused by the new crown epidemic, we have studied the impact of a new wave of infections on the production of machinery. Optimistically, we have studied the impact if the vaccine is launched earlier than our baseline forecast. Taking into account the heavy pressure on output and demand, as well as the scale and speed of future recovery, these two points will affect the duration of the current lockdown.